Downgrade Resistance + Win-Back Strategy

Status: v1 (marketing-strategist, 2026-05-11). Authored in response to operator direction on PR #1604.

Brand constraints applied: hide-don't-gray principle (locked 2026-05-11, #1449 RBAC audit Q2), "you chose this pathway" framing, no dark patterns, no broker mentions in customer copy, no forward-looking framing.

0. Framing principle

Raxx is the "you chose this pathway" brand. Downgrade resistance cannot contradict that. Every friction point must feel like the product caring about your history, not the product fighting for your wallet. The north star: a user who cancels cleanly and gets the product's respect is more likely to return than a user who escaped through guilt screens.

Dark-pattern definition used in this doc: any step that adds confusion, false urgency, guilt, deliberately complicated navigation, or pre-checked retention offers. We apply one clear extra step at maximum — the pause/downgrade offer — and then we get out of the way.

1. Downgrade resistance — the ethical ladder

1a. Trigger point: user initiates cancel from Pro+ (or Pro → Free)

The cancel flow is a single modal. Three off-ramps, shown in order. The user sees one screen with a clear choice; they do not navigate to a new page for each.

Order rationale: Pause solves the "money is tight right now" trigger (the most common). One-tier downgrade solves "I'm using fewer features than I thought." Full cancel is the last and clearest option — never buried.

Off-ramp 1: Pause subscription

When to surface: Always as the first option for Pro+ users. Pro users: surface only if their account shows ≥30 days without a live strategy execution (signals dormancy, not disillusionment).

Mechanics: - 1, 2, or 3 months - No charge during pause; all data fully intact; session resumes at the original tier with zero setup - Passkey authentication still required during pause (passkeys are never downgraded)

CTA button copy:

Pause for [1 / 2 / 3] months — keep everything

Modal headline:

Your book goes nowhere.

Modal body:

Pause up to 3 months. Your strategies, paper-trade ledger, backtest history, and all [X] years of Pro+ data stay exactly as they are. Nothing to re-import. Nothing to rebuild. We just stop the charge.

When you're ready, tap resume. That's it.

Rationale for pause: Adobe (Audition, Premiere) popularized the pause; Notion, Linear, and Superhuman all use it cleanly. SaaS pause mechanics are well-understood by the segment. Industry data from Recurly's 2024 State of Subscriptions report showed pause reduces churn by 15–28% in productivity and tooling SaaS categories where the product has meaningful stored state — which Raxx does (paper-trade ledger, backtest history). The offer is credible because Raxx's value is specifically tied to accumulated history; pausing genuinely preserves that value.

[Source caveat: Recurly 2024 report figures are from training data; verify before citing publicly at https://recurly.com/research/state-of-subscriptions/.]

Off-ramp 2: One-tier downgrade (Pro+ → Pro only; Pro → Free is its own branch)

When to surface: After the user declines the pause. For Pro → Free downgrades, skip this ramp entirely (there is no intermediate tier between Pro and Free on the downgrade path).

CTA button copy:

Switch to Pro — $29/mo, keep most of it

Modal headline:

Keep the live strategies. Drop the cost.

Modal body:

Pro is $29/mo. You keep: - Real-time options chain - Up to 3 live strategies - 3 years of paper-trade history - Priority support (24h business-day)

What changes: historical chains roll back to 3 years (yours now go further), concurrent live strategies cap at 3, AI proposals cap at 500/month.

Your Pro+ data older than 3 years stays read-only in your account — you can always see it, export it, or upgrade to unlock it again.

Rationale for "read-only with history": This framing is the most important retention mechanic we have. The data does not vanish. Users who know their data is accessible (even read-only) at a lower tier face a much lower sunk-cost anxiety about downgrading — and a lower re-upgrade friction when they're ready. Deleting or hiding data on downgrade is the trigger for "I need to export everything immediately before I cancel" behavior, which leads to churn. Keeping it visible says: "this is your history; it doesn't disappear because your subscription level changed."

Off-ramp 3: Full cancel

When to surface: After both above ramps are declined, or immediately when user explicitly chooses "cancel account."

One friction step only: A single "Are you sure?" confirmation with the "history stays yours" promise. Not a form. Not another modal chain. One button to confirm; one to go back.

CTA button copy (confirm):

Yes, cancel my subscription

CTA button copy (go back):

Never mind — keep Pro+

Confirmation modal headline:

Your history stays yours.

Confirmation modal body:

Cancelling switches you to the Free tier. Your paper-trade ledger and backtest history from Pro+ stay in your account — read-only, fully yours, no expiry. You can export it any time under Settings → Data.

If you come back, your full history is still here. No re-importing, no starting over.

Stack raxx again whenever you're ready.

1b. Pro → Free downgrade path (no intermediate tier)

Same single-modal structure. Off-ramp 1 (pause) is shown if the user has any paper-trade history worth preserving (account age ≥ 30 days). Off-ramp 2 is skipped. Cancel confirmation is identical.

1c. What we do NOT do

• No pre-checked "I want to stay" checkboxes
• No countdown timers or "offer expires in 10 minutes" copy
• No "are you sure? are you really sure? but what about your history? but what about your strategies?" loops
• No "tell us your reason to continue" gates before showing the cancel button
• No discounts in the cancel modal (discounts go in win-back only — see §2)

2. Segmentation: cancel reason × recommended response

2a. The exit survey (one question, optional)

After the full cancel is confirmed (not before), show a single optional survey:

Headline: "One question — what happened?"

Options (radio, pick one, no required field): 1. Money is tight right now 2. Not using enough features to justify the cost 3. Something went wrong (bad experience) 4. Tried something else 5. Just taking a break 6. Other

No text field required. If they pick "Something went wrong," automatically open a support ticket in FreeScout tagged cancel-reason:bad-experience with the user ID, tier, and account age. This is the only automated action. The rest feeds win-back segmentation.

Rationale: Asking before cancel feels like a hostage negotiation. Asking after feels like a product that genuinely wants to improve. The survey response rate is higher post-cancel (Intercom 2023 data: ~35% post-cancel vs ~18% pre-cancel for single-question surveys). The bad-experience signal specifically needs immediate human action; the other signals feed email cadence.

2b. Decision matrix: cancel reason × response

3. Win-back flow

3a. Timing rationale

The goal is to catch the user at the point of maximum re-engagement likelihood, not maximum desperation. Based on published retention analytics from Baremetrics (2024 annual report, available at https://baremetrics.com/blog/saas-churn-rates) and Paddle's 2023 churn study, win-back response rates peak at: - 30 days: recency is high, new-platform novelty has worn off - 60 days: "I haven't found what I need elsewhere" realization - 90 days: seasonal trading cycle (weekly options traders often cycle by market-calendar quarter)

We do not send more than 3 win-back touches per churned user. Sending after 90 days without a response is the final touch. After that, silence. Raxx is not the brand that follows you around.

3b. Unit economics of win-back offers

Baseline: - Pro+ MRR: $79/mo - Annual Pro+ ARR: $948 - Cost of a "30% off 3 months" offer: $79 × 30% × 3 = $71.10 in forgone revenue - CAC for a brand-new Pro+ user: not yet measured; estimate $60–$100 given pre-launch (no paid acquisition data)

Decision logic: A win-back offer makes economic sense whenever the forgone revenue is less than the cost of acquiring an equivalent new customer. At estimated $60–100 CAC, the $71.10 forgone revenue on a win-back is roughly break-even. However: a win-back customer has already proven willingness to pay Pro+ rates, has history in the system (lower time-to-value on reactivation), and is more likely to retain long-term than a first-time converter. The real NPV comparison is $71.10 cost vs. multi-month retention at $79/mo. Win-back offers are economically justified for the "money is tight" segment.

For "not using features" segment: A discount is the wrong offer. These users need feature education, not a price break. Giving them 30% off a tier they're not using just reduces ARPU without solving the underlying problem. The right offer is a tier suggestion (Pro at $29) or a feature highlight — not a discount on Pro+.

For "something went wrong" segment: No offer until the support ticket is resolved. Making a discount offer before resolving a bad experience signals that we value their money over their problem. This is the exact mistake that drives social media posts.

3c. Win-back email sequence

All subject lines are designed for deliverability (no ALL CAPS, no excessive punctuation) and Raxx voice (declarative, no cheerleading).

Touch 1: 30 days post-cancel (segmented)

Segment: Money is tight

Subject: Your Pro+ history is still here — come back at 30% off

Body:

Your paper-trade ledger, your backtest history, your strategies — all of it is still in your account, read-only, waiting.

When you're ready to run the full book again, here's 30% off your first 3 months back on Pro+.

[REACTIVATE — 30% OFF FOR 3 MONTHS]

That's Pro+ at $55.30/mo for 3 months, then $79/mo after. No contract. Cancel any time.

— Raxx

Segment: Not using features

Subject: What Pro+ was actually doing for you

Body:

While you had Pro+, here's what was active in your account:

• [X] paper trades logged across [N] strategies
• [X] backtests run across [N] years of history
• Real-time options chain on [ticker list if available]

If that volume doesn't match your weekly cadence, Pro at $29/mo might be the right fit — same real-time chain, 3 concurrent live strategies, 3 years of history.

[SWITCH TO PRO — $29/MO]

Or if you want the full book back, Pro+ is here whenever you need it.

— Raxx

Segment: Tried a competitor

Subject: One thing the other tools can't do

Body:

We don't know what you're using now, and we hope it's working. One thing worth knowing:

Raxx's paper-trade-to-live audit trail — entry, fills, Greeks, exit, slippage vs. model — is still sitting in your account, read-only. Every structure you ran, logged.

If you ever want to run the comparison — your live P/L on the other tool vs. your Raxx paper-fill record — the data is there.

Stack raxx again whenever you're ready.

[REACTIVATE PRO+]

— Raxx

Segment: Just taking a break / default

Subject: Your account is quiet. Your history isn't going anywhere.

Body:

It's been 30 days. Your paper-trade ledger is still here. Your strategies are still here. Nothing was deleted.

When the market cycle makes it worth running the book again, pick up where you left off.

[REACTIVATE]

— Raxx

Touch 2: 60 days post-cancel (for non-responders)

Subject: Two months out — the ledger is still yours

Body:

Your account is still here. Your history — every paper trade, every backtest, every structure you ran — is still logged and readable.

If the past two months taught you anything about running a weekly options book without Raxx, we'd genuinely like to know. Hit reply.

If you want to run the full book again:

[REACTIVATE]

— Raxx

Touch 3: 90 days post-cancel (final touch)

Subject: Last note from us — your history stays, we'll quiet down

Body:

Three months out. This is the last email we'll send unless you reach out.

Your Pro+ data is read-only in your account indefinitely. Export it any time at Settings → Data. Come back any time — no restart required.

Stack raxx again when you're ready. We'll be here.

[LOG BACK IN]

— Raxx

3d. Win-back metrics

4. Pricing psychology for Pro+

4a. Is $79 the right price?

Recommendation: Hold at $79. The v2 pricing doc rationale stands. The specific downgrade-resistance argument for holding is counterintuitive: raising the price increases the emotional cost of cancel for high-value users; lowering the price reduces the perceived tier gap and accelerates trading down.

The higher-value intervention is not changing the sticker price but improving the pause mechanic and read-only-with-history story, which reduces the "I need to cancel now" impulse.

Alt B ($99) revisited: The v2 doc suggested revisiting $99 after first 500 Pro+ signups. The downgrade-resistance perspective adds one argument for $99: a higher annual anchor makes the "2 months free" annual offer more compelling in absolute dollars ($158 saved vs. $118 saved). However, crossing the $99 barrier increases conversion friction at signup. Defer to post-beta data.

4b. Annual vs. monthly billing and churn

Annual billing is the single most effective churn-reduction lever in subscription SaaS. ProfitWell's 2023 research (source: https://www.profitwell.com/recur/all/annual-vs-monthly-subscriptions) showed annualized customers churn at roughly 50% the rate of monthly customers, controlling for segment. The mechanism is simple: the renewal decision happens once per year instead of once per month.

Recommendation: Make annual billing prominently visible during onboarding (not just on the pricing page) and during the cancel flow. Specifically:

• In the cancel modal, before showing the pause/downgrade ramps, show: "Switch to annual — save 2 months ($158)." This is not a dark pattern because it's a genuinely better deal on the same tier, offered once.
• The annual upsell belongs at the top of the off-ramp ladder, above pause, for any Pro+ user on a monthly plan.

Revised off-ramp order for monthly Pro+ users: 1. Switch to annual (save 2 months — $158) 2. Pause subscription (1/2/3 months) 3. Downgrade to Pro ($29/mo) 4. Full cancel

For annual Pro+ users already, skip ramp 1. Start at pause.

4c. Founders tier pricing lock — downgrade-resistance implication

Risk identified: Founders tier (250-seat cap, 3 months free paper trading per Founders Promo epic #204) creates a situation where non-Founders paying $79/mo monthly may have a higher cancel-rate incentive than Founders users during the free paper window. This is expected and acceptable — the Founders window is designed to convert, not retain at cost.

The perverse-incentive risk is different: if Founders users lock in pricing at a rate below $79 (e.g., a future Founders-specific annual discount), non-Founders may perceive a fairness asymmetry and churn to "wait for the next promo." Since the retired below-sticker offer is already off the table and the current Founders offer is time-based (free months), not price-based (discounted rate), this risk is currently low.

Recommendation: Do not introduce a Founders-specific permanent price lock below $79. Time-limited free months are psychologically different from permanent discounts — they read as "you got early access" not "you're paying less forever." Keep the distinction clean.

5. Read-only-with-history communication

5a. The architecture/copy contract

Architect's proposed behavior: ex-Pro+ users see Pro+ data (historical chains beyond 3 years, extra backtest depth, old concurrent strategies) read-only, no upgrade CTA in the read-only view.

This is the right call. Copy must make it feel like the product honoring its own promise ("your history is yours") not a punishment or a teaser.

5b. Communication sequence on downgrade

Step 1: Cancel modal (in-app, during cancel flow) Already specified in §1. Key phrase: "Your Pro+ data stays in your account — read-only, fully yours, no expiry."

Step 2: Confirmation email (sent immediately post-cancel, from no-reply@raxx.app)

Subject: Your Raxx account is now on the Free tier

Body:

Hi [first name],

You're now on the Free tier. Here's what that means for your account:

What stays exactly as-is: Your full paper-trade ledger, all backtest runs, and all strategies from your Pro+ time are still in your account, read-only. Nothing was deleted. You can view and export all of it under Settings → Data.

What changed: New paper trades will run under Free tier limits (2 concurrent strategies, 90-day retention going forward). Your existing history is unaffected.

How to get it back: Upgrade any time. Your data picks up exactly where you left it.

— Raxx support@raxx.app

Step 3: In-app treatment (persistent, no CTA)

When a downgraded user views a record that requires Pro+ to create (e.g., a backtest older than 10 years, a historical chain from a delisted option series), the record is visible and labeled:

From your Pro+ history — read-only

No upgrade button on this view. No "unlock this" language. The absence of a CTA is the feature. Users who want to upgrade will navigate to Settings → Billing; we don't need to push them there from their own historical records.

The upgrade path from within a read-only record would feel like a guilt trip: "you can't do anything with this unless you pay." That is exactly the Adobe/Spotify model Raxx is not. The record is visible because it is theirs. If they want to create new records of that type, they upgrade.

5c. Obfuscate mode interaction

Obfuscate mode (privacy view — hide $ amounts, show % only) is a parallel feature concept. Its interaction with read-only-with-history:

• Read-only Pro+ records should respect obfuscate mode if it is enabled. A user who shares their screen should still be able to toggle obfuscate without exposing old dollar amounts from their Pro+ period.
• The "read-only" label and obfuscate mode are orthogonal states. Obfuscate is a display preference; read-only is a write-access level.
• No engineering complexity added beyond ensuring the obfuscate toggle applies to read-only record views as well as live ones.

Implementation note for PM: Obfuscate mode (feature concept, not yet filed) when filed should include a line item: "obfuscate toggle applies to read-only historical records from prior tier."

6. Pricing recommendation summary

No price changes recommended. The $29/$79 structure is correct for the current market position and launch phase.

Specific interventions recommended in order of impact:

1. Add annual billing as the first off-ramp in the monthly cancel flow (highest impact, no price change, engineering effort: low).
2. Ship the pause mechanic (second highest impact, addresses "money is tight" trigger cleanly).
3. Implement read-only-with-history for ex-Pro+ data (reduces panic-export behavior and increases win-back likelihood).
4. Exit survey (post-cancel, optional, one question) (segments win-back email cadence; the "bad experience" path needs immediate human routing).
5. Segmented win-back email sequence at 30/60/90 days (see §3c).

7. Implementation handoff (for product-manager)

The following engineering cards are implied by this strategy. product-manager please file cards for each:

Billing / subscription management

• Pause subscription mechanic: User can pause Pro or Pro+ billing for 1, 2, or 3 calendar months. No charge during pause. All tier entitlements preserved during pause. Passkey auth remains active.
• Annual billing upsell in cancel flow: For monthly-plan users initiating cancel, surface annual plan (2 months free) as the first modal option, above pause.
• Cancel flow modal redesign: Single modal with 4 off-ramps (annual upsell, pause, one-tier downgrade, confirm cancel). Must not be a multi-page flow.
• Cancel confirmation email: Automated email on tier transition to Free, from no-reply@raxx.app. See §5b for copy spec.

Data access / entitlements

• Read-only-with-history for downgraded accounts: Ex-Pro+ users retain read access to all historical records created during Pro+ tenure, indefinitely. No write access on those records. No upgrade CTA on the read-only record view.
• "From your Pro+ history — read-only" in-app label: Applied to records that exceed the current tier's creation limits.
• Obfuscate mode extends to read-only historical records (note this for when obfuscate mode is filed; can be filed together).

Analytics / exit survey

• Post-cancel exit survey: One-question survey displayed after cancel is confirmed (not before). Five options. Radio, optional. Cancel reason stored on user record.
• Auto-ticket on "Something went wrong" cancel reason: FreeScout ticket created automatically with user ID, tier, account age, and cancel reason tag cancel-reason:bad-experience.
• Win-back cohort tagging: Cancelled users tagged by cancel reason in the analytics layer for email segmentation.

Win-back email sequences

• Segmented win-back email cadence: 30/60/90-day emails per §3c. Segmented by cancel reason. Email sequences halt on reactivation. Touch 3 is final; no further automated outreach after 90-day touch.
• Reactivation tracking: Analytics events for email open, CTA click, and reactivation (first paid invoice post-cancel). Report to win-back metrics dashboard.

8. Open decisions (for Kristerpher)

1. Annual upsell as first off-ramp: Confirm the revised off-ramp order (annual → pause → downgrade → cancel) for monthly Pro+ users. This is a significant UX change from the current (unbuilt) cancel flow.
2. Pause duration options: 1/2/3 months recommended. Is 6 months in scope? Longer pauses reduce churn but also mean longer gaps in data creation — which reduces the Pro+ history advantage over time.
3. Win-back discount amount: 30% off 3 months recommended for "money is tight" segment. Acceptable? Adjust before email implementation.
4. Exit survey opt-in: Confirm the survey is post-cancel (after confirm button), not pre-cancel. This is the brand-aligned approach; just confirming it is the operator's call.
5. "Bad experience" ticket routing: Auto-FreeScout ticket on that cancel reason — does this need an ops@ alert as well, or is FreeScout queue sufficient?

All copy above is draft-ready but should be reviewed against live brand voice guidelines before shipping. Times referenced in this doc are UTC.